How often has a conflagration over Gaza kicked off with an Israeli extrajudicial assassination? This time it was Abu Al-Atta, a Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) leader. Another attack in Damascus — which many believe to be Israeli handiwork — aimed for Akram Al-Ajouri, the No. 2 in Islamic Jihad. Israel has assassinated its foes at home and abroad, with zero attempts at any judicial process, oversight or accountability. Are Israelis any safer? Almost certainly not.

The difference in recent years is that much of the rest of the world’s military powers, led by the US, have also adopted this practice, often using drones. Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi may have committed suicide, but who would be surprised if the US Marines did not have a kill order, just like those involved in the killing of Osama bin Laden.

Does it work? The results are highly dubious. Militants in Gaza have had zero difficulty in regenerating new leadership cadres, nor have Al-Qaeda or Daesh. Who decides on who lives and who dies is therefore extremely problematic. A powerful leader authorizes it with few fears of consequences. Using this flawed policy, Hamas could order the assassination of much of the Israeli leadership, its military wing and anyone else accused of war crimes against Palestinians; the collective punishment of Gazans being just one.

The assassination is typically the start of bloodshed, not the end of it. Who would be shocked if, in the months ahead, Daesh commits atrocities in retribution for the death of its leader? In the case of Gaza, every major assassination results in rockets, mortars and a devastating Israeli “response.”

In a region of uncertainties, one certainty stands out: Israel will bomb Gaza again, and Islamist militants will rocket and mortar Israel.

Five years without an Israeli war on Gaza is, for this century at least, remarkable. Is Israel cutting back? The Netanyahu government has opted for shorter but more regular “mowing of the lawn,” as the charming Israeli phrase goes. In public relations terms, this has advantages. A short-term flare up killing 34 Palestinians only just registers on the media radar, whereas a three-week exercise in Gaza-flattening invited world opprobrium.

Islamist militants may back off from provoking any cataclysmic Israeli onslaught. Hamas was at pains to distance itself from the actions of PIJ, whose fighters were responsible for the hundreds of rockets fired into Israel last week.

What does this say about Hamas? It restricted its actions to launching two rockets at Beer Sheva on Saturday, in part to demonstrate it was not collaborating with Israel. If PIJ rockets and mortars Israel, the Hamas leadership is under pressure from its rank and file fighters and supporters to follow suit so that it is not outdone by its rival in the Islamist ranks.

In a region of uncertainties, one certainty stands out: Israel will bomb Gaza again, and Islamist militants will rocket and mortar Israel.

Chris Doyle

Some had expected the Israeli political paralysis to make a conflict with Gaza more likely. In the past, this has been the case. At present, Benny Gantz only has until Wednesday to form a coalition. Should he fail, it could be back to the polling booths in the new year for a third time in this quest to form a government. Yet the divisions in Israel are not about hitting Gaza, but how hard.

Palestinians in Gaza will be relieved that the Israeli political climate has not led to a more devastating assault. Benjamin Netanyahu was wary of being seen to be attacking Gaza recklessly, and was at pains to ensure all major Israeli leaders were properly briefed, informed and involved. A short two-day attack with the successful elimination of Al-Atta was probably viewed in his terms as a tactical success.

Are we one centimeter closer to resolving the issue of Gaza? No. At best, a mini-move forward might come in the form of some short-term micro-easing of the blockade.

The long-term indicators are incredibly worrying. Both sides dehumanize the other in ever more horrific terms. When he was Israeli defense minister, Avigdor Lieberman casually stated: “There are no innocent people in the Gaza Strip.” This was not even seen as a controversial statement.

The dehumanization is also in evidence abroad. In the US, Elizabeth Warren was the only one of the Democratic presidential candidates to make reference to the killings of Palestinians, amid a solid bank of support for Israel’s actions. Joe Biden tweeted: “Israel has a right to defend itself against terrorist threats. It is intolerable that Israeli civilians live their lives under the constant fear of rocket attacks. That’s why our administration was such a strong supporter of Israel’s life-saving Iron Dome.” Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders did at least reference Palestinians, if not their deaths.

Palestinian militants are also not going anywhere. If anything, their capabilities are on the increase. The rocket ranges are growing, this time landing in the Tel Aviv area. There seems to be little evidence that their weapons arsenals are shrinking. More Israeli civilians come in the range of their fire, including in schools, shopping malls and on highways. Does this achieve anything? The answer has to be no, aside from the obvious immorality and illegality of indiscriminately targeting civilians.

But how does this compare to the never-ending collective punishment of the 2 million Palestinians in Gaza, three-quarters of whom are refugees? Most of these civilians are children, most of whom have known nothing but blockade. They do not know the outside world. The UN has long predicted that, by 2020, Gaza would be uninhabitable. The water is unfit for animal consumption. The inhabitants are on a life-support machine.

They are kept like this so that Israel and the Palestinian extremist militants can achieve one strategic goal — to kill off any chance of peace. The Israeli and Palestinian peace camps are hung out to dry. As long as Gaza is cut off from the rest of Palestine as well as the world, and as long as all that is achieved is long-term cease-fires, serious negotiations to end this conflict are a pipedream.

Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. Twitter: @Doylech