During the “Baghdad II” conference in Jordan, French President Emmanuel Macron reiterated in a press interview his objective of finding a solution to Lebanon’s many problems, or more precisely, to the catastrophic situation.

There is no doubt that the French president has maintained his focus and agenda for Lebanon. Yet, is he capable of bringing a solution? And would this solution be in favor of the Lebanese people or risk enforcing Hezbollah’s international recognition and control over the lives of Lebanese citizens?

It comes down to the question of what the real problem facing the country is. Is the real problem finding a consensus to elect a new president? Or is the real problem Hezbollah’s status and the obsolescence of the current political system? Does Lebanon need yet another quick, useless fix that keeps eroding the core of its state or does it need to move ahead in this chaos toward a new status?

It is simply about choosing between what is pressing and what is important. And the pragmatic way is to focus on the superficial and achieve a political and diplomatic win regardless of the long-term consequences.

I totally understand that the vacuum in the presidency is a source of fear among the Christians of Lebanon. Indeed, in a fragile state, there is always fear in a centralized state of a change being enforced that would make them lose even more.

Yet, in reality, and looking at past years, a bad president harms more than no president at all. As a Sunni, I have seen the post of the prime minister be totally humiliated and emptied of is substance. And so, this time, it might be a smarter move for Lebanese Christians to push beyond this fear and aim for a real solution to the country’s many troubles. They are not alone in this mission.

In his latest statements, Macron called for the removal of the political leadership who have blocked reforms.

He also mentioned the possibility of a regional conference for Lebanon. One might ask who could attend this conference if the political leadership is removed? I totally abide by his view that Lebanon needs a complete overhaul of its politicians. The latest parliamentary elections have proven that the current political system corrupts all, and absolutely. Therefore, this is the first change that needs to be made.

Everyone knows the situation on the ground will not change without a military explosion.

Indeed, there is nothing that can change the status of Hezbollah and its stranglehold on the entire population except violence.

It is something no one is capable of or willing to do at this stage and so little change can be expected, no matter the names of those who come to power.

The decrepitude of the country will continue as long as this occupation holds.

And so, what is there to do? We must accept that the real problem and the real solution for Lebanon is the need for constitutional change. This is why, and no matter how illogical and futile it seems today, there is a need to look into building a new political system. One that would answer the question, what if the Lebanese were free to choose today? What if there was indeed a single army and no foreign armed militias, what should be done to guarantee prosperity? And who knows, this might be the spark that leads to real change.

When deciding on another global conference for Lebanon, the focus should not be about providing the needed “tick the box” to unlock international aid.

It should be about bringing real change. Indeed, when the time comes and just as for the maritime agreement with Israel, the deadlock will vanish and a president with a prime minister will provide the “lipstick” needed to unlock IMF support the country needs. It will be squandered without a doubt.

Therefore, when calling for a conference, Macron should focus on supporting the emergence of a new constitutional Lebanon.

I strongly believe that a federal state is by far the best solution for the country’s ills.

Despite the heavy criticism that is targeted at the French president, mostly by the French media, I would not denigrate his consistent and never-ending focus on Lebanon.

I do not see vanity as many describe it, I see a true will to support and keep the Lebanese in the mind of global and world leaders. This is something Lebanon indeed needs.

Yet, what I worry about is the president being dragged into an equation put forward by the Iranian regime and Hezbollah. And that when looking to solve it, this plays directly to their advantage.

Unfortunately, in some of his actions, especially when reaching out to regional leaders, this has been the case.

Symbolically, Macron had planned to spend Christmas Eve in Lebanon and visit the UN peacekeeping mission in the south of the country. Yet, the cold-blooded killing of a young Irish UN peacekeeper altered his plans. A Hezbollah supporter has since been detained for this murder.

It is unlikely this action was taken without the knowledge of the group. It is a reminder that no one moves freely on the roads of Lebanon without the approval of Hezbollah.

Not even a French president. It is the message sent by Iran and Hezbollah to Macron that the same applies for any political roadmap.

• Khaled Abou Zahr is CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.