WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund said Tuesday that the global economy is projected to grow 3.6 percent in 2022, down 0.8 percentage point from its forecast in January.

Surging crude oil and other prices and supply constraints, both stemming from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, are expected to hamper the global economy’s recovery from the novel coronavirus pandemic, according to the Washington-based institution.

For Japan, the IMF revised down its 2022 growth projection by 0.9 point to 2.4 percent, citing the impact of higher crude oil prices and coronavirus-linked restrictions on social activities. Meanwhile, the 2023 growth forecast was upgraded by 0.5 point to 2.3 percent, reflecting the effects of economic stimulus measures to be introduced by the Japanese government.

In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF said that economic sanctions imposed mainly by the United States, European countries and Japan on Russia over the Ukraine war “will have a severe impact on the Russian economy.”

The Russian economy is now expected to contract 8.5 percent in 2022 and shrink 2.3 percent in 2023, as its bleak outlook and financial disintermediation arising from sanctions “will lead to a significant drop in private investment and consumption.”

Battered by the war, Ukraine’s economy is predicted to contract by 35 percent in 2022.

In anticipation of accelerated monetary tightening by the U.S. Federal Reserve, meanwhile, the IMF lowered its U.S. growth projections both for 2022 and 2023, by 0.3 point to 3.7 percent and by 0.3 point to 2.3 percent, respectively.

The Chinese growth estimates were cut by 0.4 point to 4.4 percent for 2022, against Beijing’s goal of around 5.5 percent, and by 0.1 point to 5.1 percent for 2023.

“The strict zero-COVID strategy in China has led to repeated mobility restrictions and localized lockdowns that … have weighed on private consumption,” the IMF report said.

Also in the report, the IMF raised its 2022 inflation forecasts by 1.8 points to 5.7 percent for advanced economies and by 2.8 points to 8.7 percent for developing economies, taking into account surging crude oil prices amid concerns about supply shortages over sanctions against Russia, a major energy exporter, as well as rising prices of wheat, of which Russia and Ukraine are major producers.

JIJI Press