Arab News Japan

TOKYO: Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party and coalition partner Komeito are in danger of losing their majority in Japan’s Upper House, a poll by the Nikkei newspaper shows.

Sunday’s election is a key test for LDP head and Prime Minister ISHIBA Shigeru, but while there is a danger of losing ground in the Upper House, the coalition is still able to govern – without a majority – in the more powerful Lower House.

The number of seats where LDP candidates are considered favorites or likely winners has declined since the early days of the race from nearly 50 to just over 40, Nikkei’s polling showed.

Close races are expected in 20 single-seat districts as opposition candidates have narrowed the gap. Of the 32 districts with only one seat up for election – which will be key to the overall outcome – the LDP is favored to win in only five.

The LDP is struggling in the 13 districts where multiple seats are up for election as races have become more competitive. Prospects also look dimmer on the proportional-representation side, where the LDP looks likely to win fewer than the 18 seats it secured in 2022. Komeito, meanwhile, is the favorite in none of the seven districts where it is fielding candidates. 

Meanwhile, the center-left Constitutional Democratic Party, Japan’s main opposition party, is ahead in multiple districts with one seat up for election and is on track to come out about even with the 22 seats up for election that it started with.

The center-right Democratic Party for the People has kept up its momentum since the start of the race. It could end up with more than triple the four seats up for election that it started with, and it is on track for around five proportional-representation seats, more than initially projected.

The right-wing Sanseito party holds a lead in Tokyo and is close to winning seats in nearby Saitama and Kanagawa, as well as in Aichi in central Japan. It could end up with more than 10 seats, including proportional-representation seats. In the Upper House, bills need support from at least 10 lawmakers before they can be formally introduced.

The Japanese Communist Party is trying to retain its one Tokyo seat that is being contested and reach a total of five, including proportional-representation seats. 

A total of 125 of the chamber’s 248 seats are up for election on Sunday, including 50 seats allocated by proportional representation. The LDP and Komeito together hold 75 seats that are not on the ballot this year. They could lose 16 of their 66 seats that are up for election and still maintain a majority.