TOKYO: Japan’s population is expected to fall to 87 million in 2070, a decrease of about 30 percent from 126.15 million in 2020, the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research said Wednesday.

The population is expected to dip below 100 million in 2056, the welfare ministry think tank said.

The estimate shows no change to the overall trend of population decline in the country, which threatens the sustainability of its economy and society.

In 2070, foreign nationals are expected to account for about 10 percent of the country’s population.

The total fertility rate, or the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, is projected at 1.36 in 2070, down from the previous 2017 estimate of 1.44 for 2065.

Those estimates were calculated based on recent trends in births and deaths, using the results of the 2020 census as a starting point. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic was excluded from long-term projections.

The total fertility rate projection came in at 1.33 in 2020. In the short term, the fertility rate is expected to remain below 1.3 until 2028 due to a decrease in marriages amid the pandemic.

The average life expectancy is projected to increase to 85.89 years for men, up from 81.58 years in 2020, and to 91.94 years for women, up from 87.72 years.

The net inflow of foreigners to Japan is expected to increase from 70,000 people per year in the previous estimate to 160,000 people per year, assuming pre-pandemic trends continue.

Based on those estimates, Japan’s population is seen falling below the threshold of 100 million in 2056, three years later than the previous projection.

The number of foreigners in Japan is expected to grow to 9.39 million in 2070, or 10.8 percent of the country’s population, from 2.75 million in 2020, or 2.2 percent.

In 2070, the number of elderly people aged 65 and older is expected to reach 33.67 million, making up 38.7 percent of the population, up from 28.6 percent in 2020.

Those aged 14 and younger will make up less than 10 percent of the population, at 7.97 million.

People aged 15 to 64, or the working age population, is seen standing at 45.35 million in 2070, or 1.3 working-age people for every elderly person. In 2020, the ratio stood at 2.1 to one.

There are concerns over greater social security burdens on the working age population due to the aging society.

JIJI Press