It may also be the year that Iran’s 84-year-old supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, relinquishes power in the Islamic Republic.

Amid rising regional tensions, the country may end up under the control of his 54-year-old son, Mojtaba, to ensure the continuation and survival of the clerical regime that has ruled Iran since the 1979 revolution.

Grand Egyptian Museum opening

In the first quarter of 2024, Egypt hopes to finally open the long-awaited Grand Egyptian Museum, situated near the Giza pyramid complex on the outskirts of Cairo.

After 20 years of planning and $1 billion in spending, the largest archaeological museum on the planet will feature more than 100,000 artifacts from Egypt’s ancient civilization, many of which have never been displayed in public before.

Sudan deterioration

Sudan has been plagued by violence since fighting broke out between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces on April 15.

A total of 6.3 million people have been displaced since April alone, adding to the 3.7 million Sudanese who had already fled their homes during previous conflicts, along with 1.1 million foreigners who had earlier sought refuge in Sudan.

More than 1.4 million Sudanese have sought shelter in neighboring countries since the onset of the conflict. With no end in sight, the conflict in Sudan will undoubtedly continue into 2024, and possibly beyond.

Sudan has topped the International Rescue Committee’s 2024 Emergency Watchlist of “countries most likely to experience a deteriorating humanitarian crisis” due to the “escalating conflict, mass displacement, an economic crisis and a near collapse of health care services.”

Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi

The first Hindu temple in the UAE capital, Abu Dhabi, is set to open in February. The temple will be inaugurated by Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, after seven deities are consecrated and blessed in special morning prayers.

Modi had launched the project in 2018 when he revealed the first model showing a monument with seven spires to reflect the seven emirates. Sculpting work began in 2020 and the temple’s distinct shape and carved pink stonework nowsoar from the desert landscape.

The hand-carved structure is being constructed on more than 5.4 hectares of land given to the Indian community in 2015 by President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed when he was the crown prince of Abu Dhabi.

Yemen settlement

There are hopes that the truce between the Houthi militia and the Coalition to Restore Legitimacy in Yemen could become a permanent ceasefire agreement in 2024.

A two-month UN-negotiated truce came into effect in April 2022 and formally ended the following October. However, hostilities did not recommence.

Saudi Arabia praised the “positive results” of negotiations with the Houthis in September after a visit by a delegation from the group.

However, since the eruption of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza, the Houthi militia has intensified its attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

While this has caused additional tensions, it is widely expected to delay rather than scuttle a ceasefire agreement that could lead to a lasting settlement to the Yemen conflict.

Iran nuclear enrichment

Another issue that is likely to continue into 2024 is the advancement of Iran’s nuclear program.

Iran continued to stockpile uranium enriched to 60 percent throughout 2023, giving Tehran the capacity to quickly enrich this material to weapons-grade levels of about 90 percent.

In December, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Iran’s foreign minister, dubbed any attempt to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, which put restrictions on the Iranian nuclear program in return for sanctions relief from the West, a “useless” endeavor.

Iran has “increased its production of highly enriched uranium, reversing a previous output reduction from mid-2023,” the International Atomic Energy Agency said in a statement in December summarizing a recent confidential report to member states.

Water and food security

The Middle East and North Africa will continue to grapple with water and food security issues in 2024, with Iraq being particularly vulnerable.

Climate change and regional tensions have reduced river and groundwater levels, especially in the country’s more arid south. The UN considers Iraq the world’s fifth most climate vulnerable country.

The most populous Arab country has faced increasing food security issues over the past 12 months, which will likely drag on into 2024.

Egypt has relied heavily on imported wheat, becoming the biggest importer in the world in recent years in order to feed its population, particularly its poor, who are dependent on subsidies.

Two developments in 2023 in particular have compounded Egyptian food security concerns: Russia’s withdrawal from the UN- and Turkiye-brokered Black Sea Grain Initiative and India’s decision to impose restrictions on the export of non-basmati varieties of rice and other food staples.

GERD dam divide

Egypt and Ethiopia are likely to remain locked in a simmering dispute over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Years of stop-start talks over the shared management of the Nile river have proved unsuccessful, making open conflict a real possibility.

Egypt has long opposed Ethiopia’s dam project because of concerns over its water supply. Sudan, another downstream country, has likewise expressed worries about the regulation of its own water supplies and dams.

Ethiopia, which argues that it is exercising its right to economic development, said in September it had completed its final phase of filling a reservoir for a massive hydroelectric power plant at the dam on the Blue Nile.

In December, Egypt said that the latest talks had also failed, but it would continue to monitor the process of filling and operating the dam.

Captagon trade persistence

The many challenges posed by the illicit trade in the stimulant commonly known as Captagon are expected to continue into 2024.

Syria is estimated to produce about 80 percent of the world’s supply of the narcotic, exporting it across the Middle East, with a particular focus on the Gulf market.

According to Western governments, Captagon exports net sanctions-squeezed Damascus billions of dollars in much-needed revenues each year.

Regional governments have intercepted several massive shipments of the drug, often making busts of hundreds of thousands or even millions of pills.

On Dec. 18, Jordan launched several cross-border air raids against Syria, targeting hideouts of drug smugglers.