While bidding farewell to 2023, I set myself a challenge to write a cheerful article to start the new year with. Unfortunately, I will have to disappoint. Despite all the greetings and best wishes, the world in 2024 looks bleak.

The Ukraine war will soon enter its third year, with no end in sight. The Gaza war is soon to complete its third month and the Israeli government is telling us not to wish for a speedy end. Rather, it has promised that its military campaign against Hamas is likely to extend for many more months, with more death, fear of escalation and uncertainties.

However, the congratulations exchanged on the first day of the year between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden — on the 45th anniversary of diplomatic ties being established between the two countries — has given me a glimmer of hope for 2024. This looks likely to be a defining year for democracy, peace, stability, climate change, poverty and the cost-of-living crisis, to mention but a few.

In his message published by the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Xi said the US and China had “weathered the storms and moved forward,” which has enhanced the well-being of their peoples and contributed to world peace, stability and prosperity. This narrative could help spur some confidence that global leadership is still alive and cooperation is possible to lessen the impacts of crises, if world leaders try.

In the next year, however, I fear not for the survival of autocratic regimes, but for the democratic and quasi-democratic leaderships, as more than 2 billion people are likely to cast their votes in 60-plus elections in 2024. The most important of these is the one in the US, where a return of Donald Trump to the White House could challenge the country’s democratic institutions.

These elections will also signal how much more the world is likely to shift toward populism in the case of India and the hard right in the case of the European Parliament. The UK could be an anomaly if its voters lurch back to the center in order to do away with the 14 troubled years of Conservative Party rule, which has taken the country further to the right after Brexit. However, a surge in election meddling, both domestic and foreign, could conspire to keep alight the flames of the hard-right’s torch.

In short, democracy and democratic practices have been at stake over the past few years and are likely to be further tested in the coming months. Social media could be weaponized to levels never seen before, with propagandists and misinformation merchants likely to capitalize on, monetize, prey on and manipulate citizens’ choices like never before.

Technological advances in the realm of fake and deepfake text, audio and video, supercharged by artificial intelligence tools and generative machine learning, could allow random individuals or rogue state actors to alter the views and choices of many voters ahead of closely contested elections.

What will make or break it for democracy worldwide is November’s US presidential vote and whether or not Trump returns to office.

Mohamed Chebaro

The tech revolution has steamrolled the traditional media and tenets of the information superhighway. Tech companies, both the giants and small players alike, will continue to resist any regulation or accountability. Last year’s elections in Slovakia were a case in point, with hundreds of thousands of posts containing disinformation flooding social media in the small Central European country. Instead of bolstering their moderation teams, many social media platforms have been cutting staff numbers in an attempt to bolster their market share.

What is alarming in my view is the fact that democracy flourishes on freedom of expression. The irony is that, thanks to freedoms, especially those afforded by technological advancement, democracy could meet its end.

The digital realm that has developed over the past two decades has been revolutionary for humankind on all levels, including by enabling what has become known as citizen journalism, with every human being now having the opportunity to create, publish and even trade in content. But this has also created the bandwidth for corrosive tools and toxic content, often authored by trolls or state agents, who have worked toward poisoning the debates, particularly in open, democratic societies. Here, in recent years, form has been preferred to substance and megaphone demagogues and their sensationalism have become the preferred address for large sections of society. Unlike in despotic regimes, these countries do not benefit from strong central state oversight and control.

Against such a backdrop, the world should hold its breath. This year, democracy could be at the mercy of malicious groups or states, which could use the digital sphere to turn the concept on its head. They will aim to weaponize misinformation, fakes and deepfakes to drive a wedge in society and increase divisions and intolerance.

Few expect Vladimir Putin to be beaten in Russia’s presidential vote in March, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate is seen as tied to the outcome of the war in Gaza; the longer the conflict lasts, the more likely it is that Netanyahu will be ousted before the end of 2024. Some elections remain in doubt, particularly Ukraine’s presidential vote, which is due in March but is unlikely to take place while the country remains under martial law.

But what will make or break it for democracy worldwide is November’s US presidential vote and whether or not Trump returns to office, with the implications that would have for US foreign policy.

The democratic world should brace for seismic changes in 2024 — and maybe not for the better. Meanwhile, at the beginning of this new year and despite all the adversities that lie ahead, I intend to keep calm and carry on, while remaining hopeful that the voices of reason — such as the messages exchanged by the leaders of the US and China this week — might ultimately prevail.

• Mohamed Chebaro is a British-Lebanese journalist with more than 25 years’ experience covering war, terrorism, defense, current affairs and diplomacy. He is also a media consultant and trainer.