TOKYO: The Cabinet Office is seen declaring an end of the Japanese economy’s latest expansion from December 2012, when Prime Minister Shinzo Abe returned to power, it was learned Wednesday.

An expert group of the Cabinet Office is likely to date the most recent peak in the business cycle at October 2018. This would mean that the expansion lasted 71 months, the second longest since the end of World War II after the 73-month boom that ended in February 2008.

The start of the latest expansionary phase coincided with the launch of Abe’s second administration. Its Abenomics reflationist policy mix featured massive monetary easing, which helped push down the yen while boosting stock prices, supporting the economy.

But the expansion lacked vigor. The average annual growth rate during the period stood below 2 percent.

In October 2018, Japanese exports and production were faltering in line with a global economic slowdown prompted by an intensifying trade spat between the United States and China.

The Japanese economy was also hurt by a consumption tax hike in October 2019 and a slump in global economic activity caused by the novel coronavirus pandemic this year.

Japanese real gross domestic product shrank for the second straight quarter in January-March.

The expert group, chaired by Rissho University professor Hiroshi Yoshikawa, will date the latest peak by examining economic data, including on production and private consumption.

JIJI Press