TOKYO: Following a devastating 7.6-magnitude earthquake on New Year’s Day on the Japan Sea coast that killed over 200 people and left the area in ruins, Japan is now wondering when the next major earthquake will occur. Some experts say Japan has plenty to be concerned about.

The big worry is that a major quake like the one on the Noto Peninsula will hit the Tokyo metropolitan area. If it does, it could kill as many as half a million people, a report in Friday magazine says.

“If an earthquake of the same magnitude were to occur in Tokyo, unimaginable damage could be expected,” says TODA Shinji, a professor at Tohoku University’s International Research Institute for Disaster Science.

TAKAHASHI Manabu, a specially appointed professor at Ritsumeikan University’s Pacific Rim Research Center, says that the risk of a huge earthquake occurring in Tokyo is increasing.

“The Noto Peninsula earthquake was caused by the collision of the North American plate and the Eurasian plate, which were being pressed by the Pacific plate, which has been moving more actively since the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake, and the Philippine Sea Plate is also being squeezed by the Pacific Plate,” Takahashi explains.

SAKAGUCHI Takao, a special researcher at the Citizens’ Disaster Prevention Research Institute, worries about the damage caused by fire. “In Noto, a wooden house caught fire and caused a massive blaze,” he said. “There are 52 areas in Tokyo where wooden houses are crowded together. The scary thing is when many disaster victims concentrate in one place.”

In the Great Kanto Earthquake in 1923, approximately 40,000 people evacuated to the former site of the Hifukusho Army Clothing Depot. A tornado of fire broke out, and most of those taking refuge were killed. Like fire, earthquakes can also trigger deadly tsunamis. In 2011, the earthquake in Tohoku triggered a giant tsunami that caused most of the 20,000 deaths.

“If an earthquake occurs in the deep sea, like the Sagami Trough, it will shake a wider area of ​​the ocean and generate a huge tsunami,” Takahashi said. “Most of the Kanto Plain (Greater Tokyo) used to be part of the sea, and the ground is weak. If a huge tsunami were to hit the Kanto Plain, the ground would subside quickly.” Weak land liquifies easily in a strong earthquake, and tsunamis can strike deep inland as they rapidly travel up valleys and rivers.

Takahashi says if a major earthquake were to occur in the Tokyo metropolitan area, the damage would not be limited to the Tokyo region. It could trigger a Nankai Trough earthquake across southern Japan, and a tsunami is very likely to occur over a wide area.

According to the Japan Meteorological Agency, since January 1, around 1,500 earthquakes have occurred in the Noto region. The fear is that the Noto earthquake will act as a trigger for other earthquakes in Japan and the Japan Meteorological Agency is advising people to be cautious and to prepare for a disaster. Disaster preparation kits containing safety items, food and water are available in shops and online, but when the next big one will occur is anybody’s guess.