TOKYO: If a huge inland earthquake occurs in the Tokyo metropolitan area, it would cause economic losses totaling 1,001 trillion yen, the Japan Society of Civil Engineers said Thursday.

The Japanese government has already forecast an asset loss of 47 trillion yen as direct damage from such a quake based on a scenario presented in 2013 by its Central Disaster Management Council.

This time, the JSCE figured out that indirect losses, including from suspended production activities due to broken roads and bridges, will reach 954 trillion yen in a post-quake period of 20 years or so.

In addition to the direct and indirect losses, the JSCE predicted that the central and local governments will see their tax revenues decline by a combined 36 trillion yen and that they will need 353 trillion yen for reconstruction work.

But the society also said economic damage could be reduced by 39 percent, or 369 trillion yen, if 21 trillion yen or more is invested in advance to make roads, ports, and buildings more earthquake-proof.

“Reconstruction would be delayed in areas where roads and bridges are severely damaged,” FUJII Satoshi, head of a JSCE subcommittee and professor at Kyoto University, said at a press conference.

“If nothing is done, the consequence will be really terrible,” he stressed.

In its 2018 report, the JSCE projected that losses from a Tokyo inland quake would total 731 trillion yen, based on data from the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake in western Japan.

But a group of civil engineering experts revised the loss forecast significantly upward after analyzing the tremendous damage from the Great East Japan Earthquake 13 years ago.

It also plans to update its loss estimates regarding a possible massive quake in the Nankai Trough off the Pacific coast of the country after the central government reviews its damage projections.

JIJI Press