TOKYO: Japan is forecast to have 5,866,000 elderly dementia patients in 2050, up over 1.4 million from 2022, an estimate showed said Wednesday.

For 2022, the number of such patients is put at 4,432,000, accounting for 12.3 percent of the population of those aged 65 or over, said a research group commissioned to make the estimate by the health ministry.

The elderly prevalence rate is predicted to rise to 15.1 percent in 2050.

The estimate, unveiled at a government meeting held Wednesday, is based on the results of researches conducted in four regions in the country.

The government will discuss how to address the projected increase in dementia patients and reflect the outcomes in a basic plan to be made as early as autumn.

In 2022, patients with mild cognitive impairment, or MCI, whose symptoms, including declines in memory, are not serious enough to affect daily life, numbered an estimated 5,585,000 with an elderly prevalence rate of 15.5 percent . The number is seen rising to 6,312,000 in 2050, and the rate to 16.2 percent.

The combined elderly prevalence rate of dementia and MCI in 2022 was 27.8 percent, against 28 percent in 2012. For dementia alone, the 2022 prevalence dropped 2.7 percentage points from 15.0 percent in 2012.

Kyushu University professor Toshiharu Ninomiya, involved in the research, noted a possible decrease in the share of cases that MCI progressed to dementia.

“Early-stage MCI may be recovered to some extent through an improvement in habits,” Ninomiya said, stressing the importance of preventing its progression and calling for higher awareness of health.

JIJI Press