Arab News Japan

TOKYO: It has been 10 years since the Great East Japan Earthquake, which had a magnitude of 9.0, but in geological terms, the event isn’t over yet. Geologists measure Earth events in hundreds, thousands or even millions of years.

In Japan, Kyoto University Professor Hiroki Kamata told the weekly Shukan Bunsho that the Great East Japan Earthquake “is an ongoing event.”

He warns of “more major events that are likely to occur in the near future.” These include aftershocks of the Great East Japan Earthquake up to a magnitude of 8; a major earthquake under Tokyo; a Great Western Earthquake in western Japan in the area known as the Nankai Trough; and even the eruption of Mt. Fuji, still regarded as an active volcano, although it hasn’t erupted for 300 years.

Prof. Kamata says that these four potential catastrophes are predicted on the basis of analyzing past disasters.

He explained that a 7.3 magnitude earthquake had shaken northeastern Japan on February 13. This was an aftershock from the 9.0 quake 10 years ago and due to the magnitude of the original earthquake these could continue for another 20 years and past experience has shown that an aftershock as high as 8 could occur.

The Great East Japan Earthquake has also increased the risk of a major earthquake in Tokyo, which sits precariously close to three fault lines.

Earthquakes with a magnitude of 8 occur at intervals of 200 to 300 years, in addition to earthquakes of magnitude 7 and Tokyo is long overdue. The last major earthquake was in 1923 when 140,000 people lost their lives.

Japan is a country full of volcanoes, the biggest of which is Mt. Fuji, which last erupted in a big way following a series of earthquakes in the early 18th century. Mt. Fuji is believed to be expanding in volcanic terms and is expected to erupt again sometime in the future.

A “Great West Japan Earthquake” is expected to occur along the Nankai Trough, which runs along a large part of the southern side of Japan. This potentially devastating earthquake has been predicted for some time and could paralyze half the country.

The Great East Japan Earthquake affected relatively remote areas, but the Kansai region of Japan is home to Osaka City and a great deal of commerce and industry. The economic effects could be disastrous for Japan.

However, disaster prediction is invariably speculative. None of Japan’s recent major earthquakes were predicted.