This year marks the fiftieth anniversary of the “oil crisis” that made Japan fully aware of the Middle East’s importance, so I would like on this occasion to make several recommendations to governments and societies to build friendly and cooperative relations between Japan and the Middle East for the next fifty years.

At the outset, I would like to express my deep concern about the current situation in Palestine. Many innocent and precious lives are lost every day, and this situation must end as soon as possible. The oil crisis that erupted 50 years ago was also caused by the Palestinian issue, and I hope that Japan will take the initiative to work closely with the countries of the Middle East to resolve this problem and make every effort to ensure a just solution.

I believe that the importance of oil and other energy sources in the Middle East will remain in the future. According to the Institute of Energy Economics of Japan, Japan’s oil demand in 2021 will be about 150 million tons, but even in 2050, 100 million tons will remain, and 59 million tons will remain under the technological progress scenario. Thus, demand for oil will remain in the long term, and a large amount of oil, the main exporters of which are concentrated in the Middle East, is expected to be imported.

The Middle East also has great potential as a source of clean energy, and the production of clean hydrogen and ammonia is being promoted, especially in the Gulf countries. Blue hydrogen and ammonia derived from fossil fuels are among the most competitive production areas in the world due to the abundance and low prices of natural gas, the raw material for hydrogen and ammonia, and the availability of suitable sites to store captured carbon dioxide. The region is also expected to be the world’s most cost-competitive production area for green hydrogen and ammonia, which are produced using electricity derived from renewables, due to the availability of abundant solar and wind resources, and as Japan moves towards carbon neutrality in 2050, clean energy sources from the Middle East are expected to be of great benefit.

The relationship between Japan and the Middle East is much more diverse than before, including culture and soft power, but I still think the relationship between the two is not enough. For example, relations in the defence sector are still very limited. Arms exports have long been taboos in Japan, and this ban was finally lifted to a limited extent with the enactment of the Three Principles on Transfer of Defense Equipment and Technology in 2014. However, when looking around the world, no other major country has such taboos. Limited arms export regime. If Middle Eastern countries request Japanese weapons or offer to jointly develop them in the future, Japan must be proactive in responding to its requests.

Today, Japan is living an era of fierce competition with its Asian neighbors, an era completely different from what it was fifty years ago, and advanced Japanese products once enjoyed a dominant market share in the Middle East but ceded this share to Chinese and Korean products in many areas. The Middle Eastern countries have a tremendous confidence in Japanese technology as well, especially among those over the age of a certain age group, but perhaps not to the same extent among the younger generation. Diplomatically, too, the presence of China and South Korea is increasing. I think Japan needs to have the mindset that makes it a competitor in the region once again and be willing to lead relations with the Middle East again.

I also think that the relationship between Japan and the Middle East is more than it was 50 years ago, but I feel that this view is not necessarily shared by the Japanese as a whole, and while Japan remains one of the most technologically advanced countries in the world, the Gulf countries are promoting the localization of their industries with huge funds, and technology seems to be taking root little by little. In addition, there is a large segment of young people and many talented among them, especially in the Gulf countries, who are active as the elite that supports the country’s industries. In a global effort to contain COVID-19, access to vaccination-related applications in Middle Eastern countries is attracting global attention.

Under these circumstances, if Japan continues to realize that it will forever be the provider of technology and money, it will likely lose the opportunity to face reality.

Lastly, I would like to point out that the need for a significant expansion of exchanges between Japan and the Middle East, and the psychological distance between Japan and the Middle East must be much closer than it was fifty years ago, thanks to the Internet and low-cost airline tickets. However, there is still a perception among the Japanese that the Middle East is a distant region, and in order to expand relations further in this context, I believe that progress in the negotiations of the Japan-Gulf Cooperation Council free trade agreement, for example, will be important. It was confirmed during Prime Minister Kishida’s recent visit that the next round of these negotiations will be held next year. I hope that with the entry into force of the free trade agreement, the business environment on both sides will improve and economic exchange will deepen, and by paying attention to the various aspects mentioned here, relations between Japan and Middle Eastern countries will reach new heights in the next fifty years. This is good for Japan, and we should not miss this opportunity.

• Dr. Shigeto Kondo is a senior researcher at the JIME (Japanese Institute of Middle Eastern Economies) Center, the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). He is an expert on the political economy of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Arab states.