- ARAB NEWS
- 30 Apr 2025
Since 1975
After the outbreak of the Syrian war in 2011, Bashar Assad benefited from significant support from Iran, alongside military and diplomatic assistance from Algeria. Furthermore, the Polisario Front, a separatist movement operating on the fringes of the Sahara and supported by Algeria, Iran, and Hezbollah, reportedly deployed armed elements to reinforce the Syrian regime’s forces.
The Tehran-Damascus-Algiers axis was founded on a shared alignment of geopolitical, ideological, and strategic interests. These included a firm opposition to Western influence and a unified objective to counterbalance moderate, pro-Western, and economically thriving Arab states, such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Morocco.
The regimes within this axis are marked by their reliance on forceful and often repressive measures to suppress domestic dissent. Iran is infamous for its waves of arrests and systematic crackdowns, most notably seen in its harsh response to the anti-hijab protests following the death of Mahsa Amini. Similarly, Algeria experienced the “black decade” after the 1992 coup, a period of civil war characterized by widespread human rights violations. More recently, the Algerian regime has intensified its repression of the Hirak movement, which began in 2019, imprisoning its leaders and silencing dissenting voices, including journalists.
The Assad regime was widely recognized as one of the most repressive in the world. Its legacy of brutality included the devastating destruction of Hama in 1982 to crush a Muslim Brotherhood-led revolt. The regime’s violent suppression of the Syrian Spring in 2011 further solidified its reputation, characterized by mass arrests, systematic torture, and the use of live ammunition against civilians. Alleged chemical weapon attacks, such as those in Ghouta in 2013, prolonged sieges, and relentless bombings of cities such as Aleppo and Homs — causing famine and widespread suffering — and widespread enforced disappearances and arbitrary executions in notorious prisons, including Saydnaya.
Tehran will see the collapse of such a loyal ally as a major blow
Lahcen Haddad
This axis, characterized by centralized governance and policies frequently viewed as repressive, poses substantial challenges to regional stability and the democratic ambitions of its populations. The fall of one of its cornerstone pillars, such as the Assad regime, could dramatically alter regional dynamics and weaken dependent movements, notably the Polisario.
For Iran, the fall of Assad signifies the loss of a critical strategic foothold on the Mediterranean, and a vital ally in its confrontations with Israel and the US. Syria has long acted as a buffer against direct attacks from its adversaries and as a key corridor to Lebanon for Hezbollah, enabling the flow of Iranian arms and equipment to logistical bases. Already strained by Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon, assets in Syria, and even within its own borders, Tehran will see the collapse of such a loyal ally as a major blow. Without Assad, Iran faces significant challenges in leveraging its network of proxies and allied regimes to advance its regional strategy.
For Algeria, isolated within the Arab and North African landscape, authoritarian and anti-Western regimes such as Iran and Syria have been pivotal to its strategy for asserting influence in the Sahel and North Africa. Algeria has expressed frustration with the growing alliance of moderate, pro-Western nations characterized by liberal economies and evolving political systems. As a counterbalance, it has worked to reestablish a “rejectionist” front through alliances with Hezbollah, Bashar Assad, and Iran’s ruling mullahs.
Algeria is also seeking support from its allies in its “cold war” with Morocco, focusing on two key fronts: the Western Sahara and influence across Africa. In the Western Sahara, Morocco has gained significant momentum through regional development efforts, attracting major investors, securing international recognition of its sovereignty, and opening new consulates. Its “Atlantic Initiative,” which also extends to the landlocked Sahel nations, has further heightened tensions in Algiers. In response, Algeria attempted to revive an Arab Maghreb Union that excluded Morocco and Mauritania — an initiative that collapsed before it could take shape.
For Iran and Algeria, real internal change is becoming inevitable
Lahcen Haddad
When it comes to influence in Africa, Morocco has taken a decisive lead by making significant investments in West Africa and the Sahel, harnessing the prestige of its monarchy, and the dynamism of its public and private sectors. Within a few years, Morocco has emerged as one of the most influential nations on the continent. Algeria, in contrast, has suffered a series of setbacks with neighbors such as Mali, Niger, and Libya. This is further exacerbated by its decades-long closure of land borders with Morocco, driven by concerns over the growing strength of the Moroccan economy.
In response, Algiers sought alliances with Iran, Assad, and Hezbollah to counter emerging African partnerships that favored Morocco. However, the weakening of Iran and the diminishing capacity of Hezbollah to project influence have already dealt severe blows to Algeria’s military regime. The fall of Assad will deliver the ultimate, crushing blow to its strategy.
What will Iran and Algeria do without Assad? The path forward remains unclear. Iran, increasingly weakened, is now seeking an agreement with the West to mitigate further Israeli strikes and alleviate the pressure of US sanctions. Its ability to sustain investments in the “Shiite Crescent” or extend its influence into the Sahel and North Africa, as Algiers might have hoped, has significantly diminished.
On the other hand, isolated Algeria can still rely on its strategic ally, Russia. However, Russia remains heavily focused on navigating the prolonged conflict in Ukraine. Moreover, tensions between the two nations over the presence of the Wagner mercenary group in Mali further complicates their alliance.
The collapse of the Assad regime delivers a significant blow to the Tehran-Damascus-Algiers axis, but also presents a crucial opportunity to promote democracy and human rights in the region. It has the potential to reduce tensions and recalibrate the balance of power across the Middle East and North Africa.
For Iran and Algeria, real internal change is becoming inevitable. The pressing question is whether these regimes can adapt and embrace change or remain trapped by the legacy of their past choices.
