TOKYO: There are emerging expectations that the next general election for the House of Representatives, the all-important lower chamber of the Diet, Japan’s parliament, will be held in November.

Many expect that it would take some time before the Lower House is possibly dissolved as the new leader of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, to be chosen on Sept. 27, would first have to be elected prime minister to succeed outgoing KISHIDA Fumio at an extraordinary parliamentary session, form a new cabinet and engage in Diet debates. But the new leader’s advantage as being a fresh face of the LDP may decrease if the snap poll is not called soon after the leadership race.

“The person who becomes the new (LDP) president and prime minister will make the decision,” MORIYAMA Hiroshi, chair of the party’s General Council, told a press conference Tuesday, referring to the timing of the Lower House breakup.

Some in the LDP say that the new prime minister “should opt to dissolve the Lower House without skipping a beat.” Former LDP Secretary-General ISHIBA Shigeru, a possible contender for the party leadership post, said in a television program Monday that he thinks the general election may be set for Oct. 27.

On the day, a by-election will be held in the Iwate prefectural constituency for a seat in the House of Councillors, the upper Diet chamber. The poll will fill the vacancy created by the resignation of a former LDP lawmaker over fraud related to secretary salaries.

As the LDP may possibly decide not to field a candidate for the Iwate race, some party members believe that holding the general election at the same time would help it avoid negative impacts of the by-election.

With the LDP leadership poll set a week later than Sept. 20 as initially expected, however, the political schedule will be tight in and after October.

The new LDP president is seen deciding personnel appointments soon after being elected. The dissolution of LDP factions in the wake of the party’s slush funds scandal has rendered the next leader unable to rely on factions’ recommendations on candidates, so the process may take some time.

Discussions with the opposition bloc over deliberations during the extraordinary Diet session are also expected to face rocky ground.

OKADA Katsuya, secretary-general of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, told reporters Tuesday that he wants “at least budget committee debates” to be held in addition to questions-and-answer sessions related to the new prime minister’s policy speech in the extraordinary session, instead of an immediate dissolution of the Lower House for a general election.

About three years ago, Kishida dissolved the lower chamber soon after his policy address and subsequent question-and-answer sessions at both Diet chambers, following the formation of his first cabinet.

CDP Diet affairs chief AZUMI Jun warned that “the extraordinary Diet session will not progress” depending on how the new LDP leader responds to matters related to the slush funds scandal.

Depending on discussions between the ruling and opposition forces, a general election on Oct. 27 is likely to be difficult.

The first Sunday of November, Nov. 3, falls in the middle of a three-day weekend, so scheduling the general election for this day is feared to invite criticisms that the LDP is aiming for low turnout. Meanwhile, the third Sunday, Nov. 17, is the date of an international conference that Japanese prime ministers usually attend.

“Considering the circumstances of the ruling and opposition sides, a Nov. 10 election is the most likely option,” an LDP Diet affairs official said.

In 2008, then Prime Minister ASO Taro chose not to dissolve the Lower House soon after taking office. This resulted in Aso having to call a general election only shortly before the expiration of then Lower House lawmakers’ terms the following year. The race resulted in a victory for the opposition, toppling the LDP from power.

It is unclear whether the next LDP leader and prime minister can continue giving the electorate the impression of being a force for change if the upcoming Lower House poll is not held soon after he or she takes office.

“If things go even slightly off track, the general election may be held when the current Lower House lawmakers’ terms expire next year,” a government source said.

JIJI Press