TOKYO: Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe faces decreasing options over a possible dissolution of the House of Representatives for a snap election, with public support falling and the coronavirus crisis dragging on.

Some lawmakers brace for the possibility that the Lower House of the Diet, Japan's parliament, will be dissolved in autumn, while many others do not expect such an early move.

Observers say that Abe would even become unable to dissolve the all-important chamber if an additional scandal breaks, causing him to lose support from other Liberal Democratic Party lawmakers.

Abe has "no choice but to dissolve the chamber in autumn or at the start of the next ordinary Diet session in January next year," said a veteran LDP lawmaker who met the prime minister recently.

The lawmaker has told some party peers to start preparations for the possible autumn election of the Lower House, whose members will reach the end of their four-year term Oct. 21, 2021.

The next general election is emerging as a popular topic among politicians in both the ruling and opposition camps after the government fully lifted the COVID-19 state of emergency Monday.

Some lawmakers see an autumn dissolution as likely because there are many events next year, making it difficult to dissolve the Lower House around the periods of the events.

Among them are the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election, which must be held before the term of the assembly members end on July 22 that year. The poll will be followed by the Tokyo Olympics, slated for July 23 to Aug. 8, and the Paralympics, set for Aug. 24 to Sept. 5.

Komeito, the LDP's ally in the ruling coalition, makes it clear that it does not want a Lower House election to happen anytime near the Tokyo assembly election.

But many LDP lawmakers do not expect an autumn dissolution of the chamber. "The situation would be far from good for an election," a senior LDP member said.

Media polls show slumps in public support for Abe's administration, while an end to the coronavirus crisis is nowhere in sight.

Public trust in the administration has been heavily damaged by scandals related to a senior prosecutor who recently quit.

The government extended his tenure beyond the regular retirement age by suddenly changing its interpretation of law. The administration was forced to scrap a bill to raise the retirement ages for prosecutors, which had been widely regarded as a measure to justify the tenure extension.

The prosecutor in question resigned after he was found to have played mahjong for money with current and former newspaper reporters despite a stay-at-home request during the state of emergency.

There seem to be no factors at the moment that may help bolster public support for the administration.

After the planned Paralympics, Abe will reach the end of his term as LDP president in late September 2021, the month before the Lower House lawmakers' term expires.

If the Abe administration enters this period, there would be little room left for him to exercise his own discretion to dissolve the Lower House.

Moreover, the administration would experience a serious crisis if the coronavirus pandemic does not end and the Tokyo Games are canceled. In this case, Abe would lose support from many LDP members.

The LDP could then move up its presidential election to let its next leader dissolve the chamber.

"We guess a Lower House dissolution would come after the presidential election," said a senior member of an LDP faction that is a rival of the one closely related to Abe.

Another factor that could influence Abe's fate is the future course of a bribery scandal involving former Justice Minister Katsuyuki Kawai, an LDP lawmaker, and his wife, Anri, also an LDP lawmaker.

Depending on the progress in criminal investigations into the scandal, calls for replacing Abe could increase inside the LDP.

JIJI Press