On the day that Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis apologized to his people for being unable to control raging forest fires that have raged for close to a month, news also came that smoke from Siberian fires was set to reach the North Pole. The same day, not too far from Athens or Moscow, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global body of scientists that has been tracking climate change for over 25 years, issued its latest, and by far grimmest, report yet.

Global warming is not just here but is accelerating rapidly as is climate change. The report also consigned to the dustbin several ambitious plans and announcements made by global leaders, time and again. Most famously, in 2015, the Paris Agreement loftily spoke of keeping the rise in global temperature to below 1.5 degrees Celsius and definitely not over 2 C. But as usual, while big statements and ambitions were laid out, little, if anything, has been done about climate change as both countries and consumers continue to pillage the earth incessantly.

As the IPCC laid out the damage done so far, it became clear that even in a year when the world’s economy was on its knees for most of the time, carbon emissions did not fall significantly and this year are set to scale new heights.
The IPCC’s predictions, if they can be called that, are catastrophic. It said that the temperature rise will hit the 1.5 C mark in just over a decade and that current trends show a 2 C rise will occur within 100 years, spelling doom for the world as the side effects of global warming become even more widespread and damaging. The IPCC warned that the earth now was hotter than at any time in the past 125,000 years.

Current trends indicate that the best possible case is a 3 C rise in temperatures by the turn of the century, according to the IPCC. The rise would bring unprecedented climate events, such as long-term droughts and severe heatwaves, every two to three years, instead of every 50 or 100 years previously. Global warming will also lead to a sharp rise in sea levels, affecting hundreds of millions of people and causing hundreds of billions in damage through flash floods, forest fires and landslides.
Certainly, the IPCC has never been so pessimistic about the outcome of the battle against climate change and the fate of the planet. But this is not the first time that it has warned global leaders to urgently change the path humanity has been on for several decades.

Unfortunately, on every occasion, such warnings have brought the same response. For a few days or even weeks, global leaders and businesses express deep concern and alarm over the warnings and commit to take stringent action. Every few years, the political and business leaders coin a new mantra to show that they are serious about mending their ways.

Unfortunately, neither the mantra nor the commitments are remembered for long and the world continues to hurtle along the path to certain destruction.

A look at the commitments made by countries in the past few decades shows just how badly the world has missed all the targets, even though the margin for error has narrowed every year and the price for its failed commitments has kept on rising.

Take the latest such major commitment, made by all countries in 2015 during the Paris climate summit. At this meeting, leaders of almost every nation promised to either immediately begin cutting total carbon emissions or at least set a clear path toward that goal. The mantra “net zero” was thrown around, with each country promising to set itself on a path that would save the world. However, six years on, almost every commitment is likely to be missed — just as almost every target that the global community set for itself in cutting carbon emissions in the past has been missed. And there are many large emitters, including India, which have not yet even set a deadline to hit net zero emissions.

But the problem is not about declarations or even meeting the net zero target by 2050, 2065 or even later this century. The biggest challenge the world faces is that although the mantra of net zero sounds very nice and eco-friendly, it could prove to be a mirage at best or an obfuscation at the worst.

So far, some countries and blocs, notably the EU, have committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, the cut-off year announced by IPCC to save the planet. However, it is important to note that few have promised to actually cut their carbon emissions. Even the EU is far from meeting its older targets and now has not even set a target of further emissions cuts.

As the IPCC laid out the damage done so far, it became clear that even in a year when the world’s economy was on its knees for most of the time, carbon emissions did not fall significantly.

Ranvir S. Nayar

Countries are free to achieve net zero through various means, including carbon capture or carbon “credits” — dumping their excess carbon emissions on foreign nations. There is little doubt how this might play out in the future once net zero commitments have to be met. Underdeveloped and poor nations in Africa and Asia might be tempted by rich nations to hold their own development back in order to absorb the excess emissions produced by wealthier countries.

This, of course, would be extremely unfair to citizens of poorer nations as it would take away their right to develop and enjoy a level of comfort and ease. It could also encourage corruption and cheating, with countries passing off their emissions on others.

The solution, as the IPCC has long called for, is for the world to get a grip on its greed and cut its overall carbon emissions, now close to 36 billion tons per year. This can happen only if rich nations double down on their consumption-oriented societies and actually cut their carbon emissions.

Global leaders and businesses would do well to recognize that they have already kicked the climate change ball as far down the road as is possible without fear of a backlash. Now, they have no more room for rhetoric or obfuscation. Action is needed. The COP26 climate change summit in Glasgow this November may be their last chance.

• Ranvir S. Nayar is managing editor of Media India Group.