LONDON: It would be “extremely difficult” for Japan to host the Tokyo Olympics next summer as planned under the current COVID-19 situation, Kenji Shibuya, a public health expert and professor at a British institute, has said.

“The spread of coronavirus is picking up pace across the world,” said Shibuya, director of the Institute for Population Health at King’s College London, in a recent interview with Jiji Press. “The pandemic is expected to spread further.”

Shibuya stressed that it will take “at least 18 months” for coronavirus vaccines to develop, and that “considerable time” will be required for them to become widely available.

He said the chances that a vaccine will be approved by the end of this year are “extremely low,” and he believes it is “almost impossible” for it to go into mass production in time for next summer.

The Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics have been postponed by one year to summer 2021 amid the coronavirus pandemic.

Shibuya noted that the “only way” to go ahead with the Olympics without a vaccine is to conduct regular COVID-19 tests.

“Regular testing is the only way, although not complete, to maintain border control,” he said.

Considering spectators and various conditions that need to be met for infection prevention regarding competition venues, with people coming from around the world, Shibuya said that “the operational hurdle (for carrying out the Tokyo Games) is extremely high.”

Noting that “most Olympic athletes are young and healthy,” Shibuya said, “It is highly likely that people with no symptoms will unknowingly spread the virus.”

He pointed to difficulties of taking thorough infection control steps during the Olympics, such as making sure that people from around the world are keeping a social distance and are not dining in groups.

Shibuya said that the seasonality of COVID-19 has yet to be clarified.

“The virus tends to spread more easily in the dry winter season, but that is not to say that it does not spread in hot weather,” he said.

JIJI Press