Russia on Tuesday once again used its veto power at the UN Security Council to block the proposed authorization renewal of a cross-border operation that delivers aid from Turkiye to millions of people in northwest Syria.

The aid is not only the last lifeline for Syrians; for Ankara, it is highly critical to preserve the fragile conditions there. Increased suffering due to the aid cut-off might pose disquieting risks to Turkiye and might even affect the delicate Turkish-Russian cooperation in Syria.

The Assad regime in Damascus has unilaterally offered to keep the Bab Al-Hawa crossing from Turkiye open for the next six months to continue the flow of aid, but it remains to be seen how that offer will be received.

Syria has been a topic that the five permanent members of the UNSC — the US, Russia, China, the UK and France — have long been divided over. While most members wanted a full-year extension of the aid authorization, they supported a compromise on a nine-month extension. However, Russia insisted on only a six-month extension. This Russian move also threw into doubt the future of the additional two border crossings from Turkiye that were opened after Syrian President Bashar Assad allowed the UN to dispatch aid to victims of the earthquake that hit Syria and Turkiye in early February. That approval expires in mid-August.

Russia desires strong relations with Ankara despite the existing disagreements between them

Sinem Cengiz

The other UNSC permanent members — with the exception of China — have condemned Russia’s move to block the proposed extension of the cross-border operation. Despite being part of the operation, Ankara refrained from commenting.

The Russian veto came as Turkiye made a positive move at the NATO Summit held in Vilnius, Lithuania. The Turkish position at the summit raised eyebrows in Moscow and led to a sharp reaction from Russian officials. A Russian defense official said Turkiye was turning into an “unfriendly country” after a series of “provocative” decisions. He was referring to the recent visit of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to Turkiye, Ankara’s endorsement of Ukraine’s NATO bid and it also opening the way for Sweden to be part of the alliance. Moscow even stressed that Turkiye should be under no illusion that it might one day be allowed to join the EU, even after its Sweden approval, while saying that Russia desires strong relations with Ankara despite the existing disagreements between them.

Following Moscow’s statement, the Russian foreign minister held a phone call with his Turkish counterpart, during which the two top diplomats reiterated the necessity to preserve and strengthen the “trust-based nature” of relations between Moscow and Ankara.

A close ally to the Syrian regime, Russia has used its veto at least 17 times regarding Syria since the outbreak of war in 2011. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has previously been critical of the veto power of the permanent members of the UNSC. He even coined the phrase “the world is bigger than five,” in reference to the need for reform of the UNSC and the fact that the fate of international issues should not be left in the hands of only these five countries.

Turkiye has raised its concerns that the great powers are in competition with one another and that they exploit third countries’ problems, such as in the case of the Syrian humanitarian aid issue. When Erdogan called for reform of the UNSC back in 2021, his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin rejected his proposal to remove the veto power of the permanent members, saying it would turn the body into a “debate club.”

There is still optimism that members of the UNSC might find common ground to break the stalemate

Sinem Cengiz

Russia’s latest veto has been interpreted as its politicization of a humanitarian cause to impose pressure in pursuit of political goals, whether in the context of the Syrian war or other international issues, most likely related to Ukraine. Also, the move came less than three weeks after an attempted mutiny in Russia by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the mercenary group Wagner, which exposed cracks in Moscow’s military leadership and Putin’s power in Syria.

However, the cross-border mandate is not only related to Russia’s opposition to the West or its alliance with the Syrian regime. It is also related to Turkish-Russian ties in the context of Syria. Through the Astana peace process, launched in 2017, Ankara and Moscow established a delicate cooperation on Syria. Despite their having opposing visions of the war, the process eventually built closer ties among them. Most importantly, their cooperation on Syria started after the Turkish-Russian tensions of 2015-2016 and ultimately allowed Turkiye to carry out several military operations in northern Syria with Russia’s explicit approval.

The original UN mandate of 2014 granted humanitarian access through four border crossings. However, since 2020, Russia has used the threat of a veto to limit it to one Turkish border crossing with the need for renewal every six months. Although it is hard to interpret the latest Russian veto, there is still optimism that members of the UNSC might find common ground to break the stalemate. A positive move by Russia regarding the aid operation would definitely be welcomed by Ankara, which has sought to maintain cordial ties with both Moscow and the West, even during the war in Ukraine. Erdogan has refused to join in with the Western sanctions against Russia and has even invited Putin to visit Turkiye in August.

Thus, regarding the cross-border aid mandate, the most critical point for Moscow is to maintain its cooperation with Turkiye on the Syrian file, while considering the delicate balance the two states have achieved over the past few years thanks to the personal bond between Putin and Erdogan. Despite the recent pro-Western moves by Ankara, it is likely that Turkish-Russian relations will remain significant, but their delicate cooperation in Syria is tied to several factors, one of them being the aid issue.

• Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. Twitter: @SinemCngz