For doomsayers fixated on divining the next regional, or even global, disaster, checking out the recent tensions on the Israeli-Lebanese frontier might be worthwhile. Yes, it has been 17 years since a major war across this hot border. It is tough to imagine who would benefit from another showdown between Israel and Hezbollah, but this is an era when the impossible, the inconceivable, so often knocks on the door of the possible.

How real a prospect is it? Border incidents have undeniably escalated. The UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon, UNIFIL, accuses both Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah of violating international commitments across the border, the so-called blue line. UNIFIL is one of those interim bodies that in the Middle East lasts forever, but it does at least serve as a crucial warning system. Israeli military analysts believe that the chances of a conflict are higher than at any time since 2006.

Israel has violated Lebanese airspace at will and all too regularly, as any Lebanese knows. UNIFIL reported 131 violations in just four months earlier this year, all, as it states, in breach of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Back in March, Israel claimed a militant crossed the border and planted a roadside bomb near Megiddo. Then, in early April, the Israeli army accused Hamas of firing a salvo of 34 missiles into Israel. Israeli planes then struck three locations near the Palestine refugee camp of Rashidiya, south of Tyre.

In May and then June, Hezbollah set up two tents 100 feet the other side of the blue line. The militant group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed that the tents were erected in protest at Israel cordoning off parts of Ghajar, a village located on the juncture between the Israeli, Lebanese and Syrian borders, and which the blue line splits in two. Israeli forces have never withdrawn from the northern part of the village they took in 2006 despite UNIFIL requesting that they leave. Israel has boosted its border infrastructure, but Hezbollah has also increased its presence.

Israel and Hezbollah are in more direct confrontation within Syria

Chris Doyle

Israel and Hezbollah are in more direct confrontation within Syria. The former frequently bombs sites in Syria that it claims are involved with transferring high-tech weaponry to the Lebanese Shiite group from Iran. Hezbollah cannot be happy.

But all parties have so much to lose. Can either Lebanon or Israel afford a war? Can Hezbollah, the Syrian regime or Iran?

Both Israel and Lebanon face widespread domestic political turmoil. Israel has endured mass protests for the past 31 weeks against the judicial reforms being pushed through by what is undeniably the most extreme, violent and anti-democratic coalition in its history. Israeli reservists, including pilots, are refusing to serve.

Hezbollah and other groups would be unwise to consider Israel a soft target, but one fears some might feel tempted to exploit the chaos that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has visited once again on his country. Even Netanyahu might baulk at a possible assault on Lebanon as a distraction given the risks. Gaza has always been a far less risky prospect for Israel on this front.

As for Hezbollah, it is certainly paying close attention to events in Israel. Nasrallah was not shy in sharing his views, claiming Israel was “on the path to collapse, fragmentation and disappearance.”  Was Hezbollah testing Israeli resolve when it set up the tents?

Lebanon has endured four years of a political, economic and social crisis. This was painfully highlighted last week by the third anniversary of the Beirut port explosion, a crime for which nobody has been held accountable. Since the end of October, Lebanon has had a presidential vacancy. Twelve times the parliament has failed to choose a successor. The country needs not only a proper government, but also bold, drastic, even painful reforms.

The international community has been unable to find a path to assist Lebanon. The economic situation is beyond dire, with the government incapable of addressing the fundamental issues while eating into depleted currency reserves. Lebanese face soaring unemployment, acute shortages of food and medicine, and the usual power cuts. According to the World Food Programme, the country has the world’s highest food price inflation rate of 350 percent.

Other sources of instability include the future of the 1.5 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The Lebanese have demonstrated incredible generosity in hosting them for over a decade, but goodwill is drying up, with supporters of the Syrian regime in Lebanon only too keen to stoke anti-refugee bigotry.

Hezbollah and other groups would be unwise to consider Israel a soft target

Chris Doyle

The fighting in the largest UN refugee camp for Palestinians in Ain Al-Hilweh — the current death toll stands at 13 — likewise shows that the Palestinian issue remains potent in Lebanon. As ever, thousands have been displaced in the fighting, with no idea when they will go back. Palestinian groups can also engage in border hostilities, as the Hamas rocket attacks have shown.

Another change that increases the stakes in the event of conflict is the vital maritime border deal Israel and Lebanon signed last year. Many on both sides were highly suspicious, but an agreement did get over the line. However, the upside is huge, as the major gas field could eventually help Lebanon exit the deep hole into which it has blindly plummeted.

The climate in Lebanon is tense. Most Lebanese feel they have no control over events surrounding the border. “We are powerless. Our fate is in others’ hands as ever,” one Lebanese academic tells me. It is a common refrain.

What would be the impact of an Israel-Hezbollah confrontation? Everything indicates the destruction and loss of life would be far, far worse than the 34-day July war in 2006 when more than 1,000 Lebanese and 159 Israelis lost their lives.

Israeli leaders have consistently made it clear they will not hold back in any future war with Hezbollah. Israel may hit Lebanon much harder, as successive political and military leaders have threatened, but even Israeli officials acknowledge that Hezbollah’s capabilities have made major strides. Israel calculates that the group possesses about 130,000 rockets, up from just 15,000 in 2006, and is capable of striking targets all across Israel. That said, Hezbollah’s engagement in Syria on behalf of the Syrian and Iranian regimes has damaged its regional standing. In 2006, Hezbollah, to the consternation of its opponents, exited the conflict portrayed by too many as heroes. Today, the group is far more polarizing.

Logic suggests there is an element of mutually assured loss involved and, therefore, a war should not be desired by any party. Even Iran will not want to risk losing its response capabilities via Hezbollah should Israel ever dare strike it.

Quite how a military triumph could ever lead to a strategic political victory is simply not clear. Yet, whenever this border heats up, one fears for a war by accident. If wiser heads keep calm and maintain control then these tensions may peter out, but too many hotheads are more than capable of doing the unthinkable.

• Chris Doyle is director of the London-based Council for Arab-British Understanding. He has worked with the council since 1993 after graduating with a first-class honors degree in Arabic and Islamic Studies at Exeter University. He has organized and accompanied numerous British parliamentary delegations to Arab countries. Twitter: @Doylech