Eli Cohen, Israel’s foreign minister, recently boasted that Papua New Guinea is planning to open a consulate in a West Bank settlement, a suggestion that arrogantly defies the international community and claims Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said that he wants to encourage the migration of Palestinians from Gaza, another way of saying he wants to promote expulsions. The Israeli government is doing everything it can to avoid talks about a political solution and peace agreement with the Palestinians. However, Israelis fail to realize that time is not on their side, and that the sooner they clinch a deal with the Palestinians, the better.

Israel’s attitude stems from the fact that it thinks it has the upper hand and can impose on Palestinians any solution that suits it. The problem is, as described by the veteran journalist Gideon Levy, Israelis live in a bubble, unaware of the brutality they inflict on Palestinians. Living in a world of their own, they do not realize they are at a disadvantage. Three factors are working against them: the change globally in the perception of Israel, the growing capability of their enemies, and internal divisions in Israeli society.

Ten years ago, no one could have imagined they would witness mass protests in support of Palestine. The Palestinian issue is no longer viewed as a conflict between two parties, but now is seen through a “social justice” lens. People across the world who have no connection with Palestine or to Palestinians are taking a stand against what they see as injustice. Israel has lost international sympathy. The perception that Israel is a refuge for Jews fleeing the Holocaust has been replaced by the view that it is a colonial power subjugating indigenous people. 

Craig Mokhiber, the UN human rights official who resigned in protest over the Gaza war, said the Israeli slaughter of Palestinians is driven by an ethno-nationalist, colonial-settler ideology. This view is likely to grow stronger as more Palestinian civilians are killed. Political elites in the West are sympathetic to Israel, but the grassroots, especially younger generations, do not share the same outlook. The bad news for Israel is that political change follows social change. Therefore, even in the US, where Israel holds the core of its international support, the situation is likely to change, especially among members of the Democratic Party. Joe Biden might be the last US president to back Israel. What will Israel do when it no longer has US or European support? Joseph Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, bluntly accused Israel of breaching international law.

Living in a world of their own, Israelis do not realize they are at a disadvantage.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The second reason is the increasing capability of Israel’s enemies and potential challengers. The Oct. 7 attack showed Israelis what Hamas is capable of. That was a big shock, but also a wake-up call to a new reality. The reality is that Israel’s enemies are becoming stronger. A Hamas official vowed that Oct. 7 will happen again. Chances are that if it does reoccur, it will be even more brutal. Hamas is seen as the weaker enemy. They are confined to Gaza and have been under siege for 17 years. This is very different to Hezbollah, which has much more developed capabilities and a direct connection with Iran, while operating freely in Lebanon. The militant group has an arsenal of 150,000 missiles, many precision guided.

Iran is also improving its defense capabilities. As for Turkiye, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has vowed to make Israel pay for its crimes. During a pro-Palestine protest, Erdogan supporters chanted demands to send Turkish soldiers to Gaza. What would Israelis think about that?

Israel has to come to terms with a new reality — it does not hold a competitive technological edge over its neighbors. Turkish-made drones were able to change the tide of the war in Libya. Countries in the region are producing weapons that one day can threaten Israel. Israelis can no longer rely on the fact they are stronger and more advanced than anyone in the region and, hence, can impose their terms. Israel does not have the deterrent capability it had previously, and needs a peace agreement to guarantee its security.

The third reason is the internal division in Israeli society. Though now we see the effect of “rallying around the flag,” divisions are likely to reemerge and grow wider once the war is over. For all those reasons, time is not on Israel’s side. It is better off making peace with the Palestinians according to UN resolutions and generally accepted norms. This will allow Israel to be accepted and have good relations with neighboring countries, even Iran. If Israel reaches a fair settlement with the Palestinians, Tehran will have to accept it.

Peace will allow Israel to mend its internal divisions and work on national cohesion. Israelis should think of South Africa. White citizens got a very good deal. There was little or no wealth distribution. This is mainly because they realized two things early on: The international community would no longer support them, and the Black population could no longer be pacified. They sealed a deal while they were in a position of power and could have favorable terms.

Israelis should be aware that time is not on their side. The longer they wait and continue to subjugate Palestinians, the weaker their position. A deal today while they still have the support of the US is definitely better than a deal in 10 years when they will likely have little or no support.

• Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.