TOKYO: Upcoming parliamentary by-elections are a major test for Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s effort to maintain his clout as his ruling party comes under fire over a political funds scandal.

The challenge comes as past by-election losses by the ruling Liberal Democratic Party have triggered resignations of then prime ministers.

The LDP did not field candidates in two of the three by-elections for the House of Representatives, set for April 28, amid public resentment over the scandal.

“I sincerely ask for more support,” Masaji Matsuyama, a senior LDP lawmaker in the House of Councillors, told a party meeting on Friday, referring to a race in the Shimane No. 1 constituency, the only district where the LDP fielded a candidate in the by-elections.

The Shimane race is supposed to be a shoo-in for the LDP, as it is designed to fill the seat left vacant by the death of Hiroyuki Hosoda, former Lower House speaker from the party.

In addition, Shimane Prefecture is a stronghold for the LDP where a candidate from the party has not lost a Lower House constituency since the current election system was introduced in 1996.

However, the LDP is struggling in the race as Hosoda was a former leader of a party faction at the heart of the funds scandal.

Past by-elections sometimes swayed the fates of administrations. Notable examples include the three races in April 2021, all of which resulted in losses for the LDP.

The losses forced then Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to give up running in the LDP leadership election in September that year.

The LDP’s loss in the Yamaguchi No. 2 Lower House constituency, another stronghold for the party, in the April 2008 by-election led to then Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda stepping down that September. The LDP lost power in the general election the following year.

The LDP under the leadership of then Prime Minister Shinzo Abe lost two Lower House by-elections in April 2019, but the ruling bloc managed to win a majority of contested seats in the Upper House poll that summer.

Under the Kishida administration, the LDP defied earlier predictions to win four of the five by-elections in April last year. The result was once viewed as a good opportunity for him to call a snap general election.

Kishida hopes to notch a win in Shimane to regain momentum, but a loss would deal a heavy blow that could prompt calls within the LDP for him to step down.

“Changing the face of the party for elections would be a precondition for a snap general election,” a middle-ranking LDP member said.

JIJI Press