The “Go To Travel ” campaign launched by the government on October 22 to stimulate tourism demand has been exempted from Tokyo arrivals and departures. In the private sector, it is estimated that the effect of boosting consumption will decrease by about 1.5 trillion yen a year. In addition, there is a criticism that “it is trying to stimulate demand, but it is cooling it down” (Toshihiro Nagahama, chief economist at Dai-ichi Life Economic Research Institute), which may cause the spread of new coronavirus infection.
The campaign will effectively discount 50% of the domestic travel fee up to 20,000 yen per night (10,000 yen for day trip). The budget amount is 1,350 billion yen. Initially, the whole country was targeted, but the government decided to cancel Tokyo where the spread of infection continues and decided a compensation policy for the cancellation fee.
Nomura Research Institute’s Toei Kiuchi Executive Economist initially estimated that the effect of boosting consumption such as accommodation, transportation and food expenses would be 8.7 trillion yen a year, but after removing Tokyo, it will be 1,540 billion yen. Will decrease. “We shouldn’t have done this during the time the infection was spreading,” he emphasizes.
Mr. Nagahama predicts that the demand creation effect may remain at around 60% of the initial level. “If the movement of people spreads the infection, and if it suppresses economic activity again, it will cause a big loss,” he said. I sought it.
On the other hand, economist Yutaro Suzuki of Daiwa Institute of Research said, “In areas where the infection has not spread, there is also a way to explore new forms of travel, such as enjoying “microtourism” to discover the charm of the local area with a private car”. ing.